The State of Reproductive Rights in the U.S. and What Trump’s Second Term Might Mean
Written December 15th, 2024 University of Iowa's Intro to Journalism & Strategic Communications course (JMC:1300)

The November 2024 election, to the shock, delight, and despair of millions, saw Donald Trump re-elected as president along with a Republican-controlled House and Senate. As the nation prepares (or braces) for another Trump presidency, the question on the minds of millions of pro-choice and pro-life advocates alike is the same–what’s next? To understand where America’s going, one has to understand how it got here.

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In the summer of 2022, the United States erupted into political chaos when the Supreme Court overturned nearly 50 years of precedent and ruled that the Constitution does not protect the right to an abortion. This decision followed and finalized the decades-long struggle by pro-life activists to overturn the controversial Roe v. Wade case of 1973. The decision in Roe protected a woman’s right to an abortion for the first trimester of a pregnancy, with fewer protections for the second and third trimesters, and in all cases where her life is at risk. The decision was upheld in 1992’s Planned Parenthood v. Casey, which allowed some state regulations but noted that states may not place an “undue burden” upon women seeking an abortion.

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The controversial Dobbs v. Jackson case of 2022 eliminated the national protection for abortion, leaving it to states to decide whether or not women are able to receive abortions for unwanted or life-threatening pregnancies. During President Trump’s first term, he was able to appoint three conservative judges to the court–Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barrett-all of whom contributed to the 6-3 decision in Dobbs. After two years, the debate over reproductive rights continues to rage as the nation carves itself up over where abortion is allowed or banned.

In the months leading up to the Dobbs decision, several states passed abortion-related “trigger laws” that would restrict or outright ban abortion. These laws, unconstitutional under Roe, would be “triggered” and quickly put into effect if Roe was successfully overturned. Following Dobbs, the trigger laws and other bans were passed, rapidly changing the landscape on where abortion access is prohibited and allowed.

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According to The New York Times, twelve states have banned abortion in almost all circumstances and seven have instituted partial bans ranging from six to eighteen weeks. The bans are heavily congregated in (and totally encompass) the southern states, with other scattered placement in the midwest and western states. While the bans do not appear in every republican-led state, there is a predictably high correlation between the red state governments and the bans. Similarly, eleven states, all democrat-controlled, have passed legislation not only affirming but expanding abortion rights post-Dobbs. Thirteen states, with a strong mix of red and blue legislatures, have passed laws protecting abortion rights, showing that the issue is not precisely split along party lines. Two years have passed but the dust still hasn’t settled on the issue. In the 2024 election, seven states passed ballot measures protecting abortion and three states rejected similar measures. 

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Like many advocacy groups, the pro-choice and pro-life camps continue their fights, alternately playing offensive and defensive. Pro-choice groups had some strong wins in the seven states where their ballot initiatives landed, but decisively lost nationally as the presidency, House, and Senate were all picked up by the Republican party. It seems that pro-life groups are again poised to take the offense in a big way in 2025 and beyond.

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“Project 2025,” a controversial 900-page document helmed by The Heritage Foundation detailing conservative initiatives for Trump’s second term, sparked intense scrutiny and backlash in early 2024. Despite the president-elect’s claims that he “[has] nothing to do with Project 2025”, the authors of the document include 144 former Trump administration, campaign, or transition advisors. The connections are numerous, making the document’s proposed abortion plans more and more relevant as January approaches. While it’s important to note that these plans are not official Trump administration policies, they point toward potential paths that the administration, or other Republican leadership at the national or state levels, may take to further restrict abortion rights.

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One of the most impactful potential plans in Project 2025 is one that would see Trump wield the FDA to revoke federal approval of mifepristone, the drug used in abortions. According to the Guttmacher Institute, medication abortions with mifepristone account for nearly two-thirds of all abortions in the U.S., due to its simplicity and accessibility via telehealth in states with stricter laws. Another related route would entail the enforcement of the Comstock Act, an 1873 law that prohibited the mailing of materials related to abortion. Other potential paths to abortion restrictions in Project 2025 include the elimination of Planned Parenthood from Medicaid, codifying the Hyde and Weldon amendments (relating to insurance coverage of abortion/reproductive healthcare), and prohibiting Title X funds from going towards any organization connected to the performance or funding of abortion. As of writing, Trump has not said whether or not he would use his executive powers to further restrict abortion. 

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With the national executive, legislative, and judicial branches all under conservative control, as well as having no democratic equivalent to Project 2025, it’s less clear what pro-choice advocates and policymakers are planning for next year. The American Civil Liberties Union, in a piece highlighting and condemning Trump’s potential policies, outlines the counter-actions it will take in each circumstance (in summary–lots and lots of litigation). In this case, pro-choice Americans will have to wait and see if any national offense will be mounted or if the name of the game is simply to slow the pro-life powers down.

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In a post-Roe America, the vast majority of the battles over reproductive rights are being fought at the state level. As America nervously waits for the new Congress’s session to begin in January, it would also be wise to pay close attention to legislation being passed in one’s state, where a vote, protest, or conversation on the subject matters the most.